Network analysis identified Prevost as a Conclave frontrunner, better than bookmakers and AI

The research builds on a well-established line of inquiry in organizational and business literature, applying it to the context of the College of Cardinals: social network analysis. The underlying hypothesis is that in any organization (including the Catholic Church), a person’s position in relationship networks may matter more than formal titles or public visibility. 

In the past, attempts to analyze papal elections have focused on three main elements: formal roles (such as Secretary of State), doctrinal orientation (conservative or progressive), and, more recently, automated analysis of cardinals’ texts using NLP. However, these approaches overlook an important concept in network theory: relational embeddedness, or the position each cardinal occupies within the network of ties built over the years. 

Soda, Iorio, and Rizzo’s analysis led to a scientific paper published in the international journal Social Networks, addressing a straightforward question: 

Is it possible to identify papabile candidates by analyzing their position within the College of Cardinals' relationship network?

The team reconstructed a multiplex network, that is, a network made up of multiple types of relationships among the same nodes (the cardinals who took part in the conclave). In particular, two cardinals could be connected through: 

1. Co-membership: both cardinals are part of the same collegial bodies of the Roman Curia (dicasteries, congregations, councils, etc.). 
2. Lines of episcopal consecration: spiritual and institutional relationships between consecrators and those they consecrated. 

The dataset was built using official public sources such as Vatican archives, biographical records, and the website Catholic-Hierarchy.org, and was enriched with data on age, nationality, and doctrinal orientation. 

From this network, the researchers calculated three key metrics. While technical and complex, they can be explained intuitively: 

• Status: how connected a cardinal is to other central figures. 

• Brokerage power: the ability to act as a bridge between individuals who are distant in the social structure. 

• Coalition-building: a composite index measuring both the cohesion of a cardinal’s group and their ability to reach other groups. 

These metrics were calculated and made public on various platforms before the white smoke of the May 8 conclave, ruling out any retrospective analysis tailored to fit the outcome.

According to all three measures, Cardinal Prevost ranked among the strongest candidates: 

• 1st in status; 

• 2nd in brokerage power; 

• 8th in coalition-building ability. 

The model therefore identified Cardinal Prevost (now Pope Leo XIV) as one of the most likely candidates to be elected pope. The key was adopting a different lens (network structure) that goes beyond focusing on individual characteristics like leadership or doctrinal leanings. 

The approach used in this study also has major implications for the world of business and organizations. Social network analysis can go beyond organizational charts to reveal who actually holds influence, even without formal leadership titles. 

These networks provide useful tools, for instance, to identify informal leaders who control information flows or enjoy the trust of their peers. This makes it possible to recognize “hidden” assets, such as young talents who, while not in managerial roles, are already central to the organization’s informal network. It also helps to assess and address potential burnout risks among those at the center of the network, who may be overwhelmed by constant demands, leading to information overload, strained relationships, and ultimately, turnover. 

Moreover, in exceptional situations like mergers or acquisitions, relational maps can help uncover communication silos or identify actors who serve as bridges between different corporate cultures, making it easier to integrate formal and informal structures. 

As the authors note, the case of the conclave clearly shows that what matters is not just the role one holds, but where one is positioned within the network of relationships, a principle that applies to cardinals, as well as to managers, consultants, and policy makers. 

Giuseppe Soda, Alessandro Iorio, Leonardo Rizzo (2025). “In the network of the conclave: Social connections and the making of a pope.” Social Networks, (83): 215–232, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2025.07.003.