The global art market is experiencing a downturn, but this very weakness may conceal a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity.
According to a new index of international art markets, developed jointly by the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business (CKGSB) and SDA Bocconi School of Management, ten-year returns on artworks fell into negative territory in 2023–2024, marking the worst performance in seventy years. Yet, in this depressed scenario, researchers identify a potential turning point for collectors and long-term investors, particularly in European markets, which have historically been more stable.
Thanks to the launch of the MM Art Indices—the first intercontinental comparative indices of art prices—CKGSB and SDA Bocconi now offer innovative analytical tools to understand and monitor the global art market. These indices reveal very different regional trends tied to broader economic transformations and contribute to greater transparency and analytical rigor in the sector.
The context
The research comes at a time of uncertainty for the art market, which has traditionally been considered a safe haven during economic crises. The years 2023 and 2024 marked a negative shift, with ten-year returns declining more sharply than at any point since World War II. Until now, the lack of standardized benchmarks has made it difficult to evaluate market performance objectively and compare it across regions.
The research addresses a number of questions:
- How has the art market evolved across different geographic areas?
- Are there significant regional patterns?
- Is it possible to identify periods of market undervaluation useful for investment decisions?
These are some of the same questions explored through different means by SDA Bocconi’s Intensive Program in Art Markets and Finance, directed by Andrea Rurale.
The research
CKGSB and SDA Bocconi jointly developed the MM Art Indices, a pioneering set of art market benchmarks covering three macro-regions: Asia–Africa–Oceania, Europe, and the Americas. The researchers also integrated the new MM Art Indices (2000–2025) with the historical Sotheby’s Mei & Moses Index (1928–2000), building a consistent long-term overview.
The indices are based on over 150 years of auction data (from 1873 to 2025), collected from major auction houses such as Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips in the world’s leading art centers.
The results reveal significant regional divergences:
- Asia–Africa–Oceania recorded the highest CAGR (compound annual growth rate): 7.7%, despite a recent 6.4% drop in spring 2025.
- The Americas: +31.7% in the same period, marking a strong rebound.
- Europe: +22.4%, with an almost complete post-pandemic recovery, though historical growth has been more modest (CAGR of 2.3%).
Conclusions and takeaways
The art market is currently in a phase of historic undervaluation. For collectors and investors with a long-term outlook, this could be a strategic time to enter or expand their exposure to the market, especially in European segments, considered more resilient and less exposed to global volatility.
CKGSB and SDA Bocconi have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to jointly develop new tools, including national-level indices for Europe and sentiment metrics, as part of an Art Market and Finance Monitor currently being developed at SDA Bocconi.
The MM Art Indices were developed by Mei Jianping (CKGSB), Michael Moses (formerly NYU), Jiang Guolin (formerly Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences), Andrea Rurale and Brunella Bruno (SDA Bocconi), with contributions from Marco Lucchetti, Academic Fellow in the Department of Marketing at Bocconi University, and several students from the Bachelor in International Economics and Management program: Pietro Notaro, Marco Peron, and Kirill Rudnev.
