In the face of uncertainty, planning is an act of responsibility for businesses
In nature, prey survives if it spots danger early, recognizes the signs, and distinguishes ordinary noise from the sounds that signal an attack. It’s a matter of escapology: the art of avoiding risk by anticipating danger.
The same principle applies to businesses. Organizations that survive and thrive in unstable environments are not the ones that react the fastest once a crisis erupts. They are the ones that saw the danger coming and prepared in advance. The difference lies in the ability to anticipate the future.
Planning is one of the five key managerial functions described by Henri Fayol , yet it is extremely difficult to put into practice for at least two reasons. The first concerns the decline in the quality of planning activities, with financial plans and budgets gradually replacing strategic analysis as business environments become increasingly unpredictable. In recent years, we have seen powerful companies brought to their knees not so much by unforeseeable crises as by a lack of preparation. Sociocultural shifts, pandemics, supply chain disruptions, energy crises, regulatory changes, and technological revolutions: all these may have seemed like “black swans” or unexpected events. In reality, in his book Ubiquity , Mark Buchanan argues that many complex systems naturally evolve toward critical states: situations that appear stable can suddenly collapse, like a pile of sand when you add a single grain. Careful observation of external environments would allow companies to prepare more effectively. In fact, when we reflect on many of the events of recent years, the heads of organizations could have recognized risks and prepared for them in advance. The irony is that these risks are often discussed in companies, even informally, but are rarely incorporated ex ante into strategic decision-making processes.
The second reason stems from our bounded rationality. The cognitive and psychological biases that inevitably limit foresight and future-oriented thinking make it difficult for managers and entrepreneurs to master the art of planning.
How, then, can companies manage all this complexity? Three tactics are essential: adopt methodologies that accept uncertainty rather than deny it, turning it into a source of competitive advantage; consider multiple possible futures rather than a single one, developing detailed action plans in advance for each scenario; and use the data available today to make decisions that remain valid over the medium to long term.
Scenario planning traces its intellectual roots to Herman Kahn and his seminal work Thinking About the Unthinkable , published in the early 1960s. As a methodology that integrates these different dimensions, scenario planning enables decision-makers to identify the trends and critical uncertainties that will shape the competitive landscape. But the analysis goes beyond statistics to explore combinations and causal relationships among economic, technological, social, and political factors. The breadth and depth of trend analysis make it possible to describe alternative future scenarios for industries and to test strategies, business models, and investment decisions, while picking up on the weak signals that point toward one future rather than another. In this way, organizations can develop more robust strategies, become inherently more resilient, and spot potential gaps in resources and capabilities by asking the question: If the future unfolds as we imagine it, what new skills will we need to acquire to face it?
This article is based on more than fifteen years of experience teaching scenario planning and strategic thinking at SDA Bocconi School of Management and Bocconi University. Among the many programs on offer, one that stands out is the Changing Scenarios Week for full-time MBA students . During this course, which won recognition with the Bocconi Teaching Award in 2026, participants engage with the methodology of scenario planning by apply it directly. They also hear from guest speakers who discuss emerging external trends, with topics ranging from macroeconomics and innovation to sustainability.
During our courses, we like to ask participants how they view the future of their industries, along a continuum ranging from clearly predictable to completely ambiguous. The most common answers are: “The future of our industry may fall within a range of possible outcomes, but it is impossible to describe it,” (i.e., an industry moving in multiple directions that are difficult to define, even qualitatively), to “complete ambiguity” (i.e., a future that is entirely uncertain). In such a volatile environment, visionary capability has become a prerequisite for both success and survival. Every industry offers countless examples of companies that “didn’t see it coming.” This tells us that activating a radar for scanning the environment is a move that organizations can no longer take for granted. The concept of radar is also highlighted in a recent McKinsey Institute study : only a very small number of businesses, for example, have visibility into the trends affecting their third-tier suppliers.
Organizations that invest today in tools and methodologies such as scenario planning are not seeking impossible certainties. Rather, they are building the capacity to make better choices. In other words, our future vision produces a “mirroring effect” on our present actions: What we believe about tomorrow largely determines the decisions we make today.
Planning well is an act of responsible leadership for all businesses, who owe it to their stakeholders and to the generations to come. The courage to imagine future events and states is the prerequisite for unlocking the ability to influence that future for individuals, organizations, society, and the planet.
As John Keats wrote , “Negative Capability…is when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason.” To begin that search for fact and reason, we must start now, calmly and methodically, by looking toward the future.
