Aspenia, the quarterly journal of Aspen Institute Italia directed by Marta Dassù and founded in 1995 by Giuliano Amato, marked its 30th anniversary at SDA Bocconi with a debate on “Assessing risk in 2026: the geoeconomics of global disorder,” organized by Aspen Institute Italia and SDA Bocconi in collaboration with CESI.

Speakers noted a curious symmetry—or rather a complementarity—between the two economic giants, the United States and China, which essentially rely on one another by offsetting their respective internal imbalances.

In recent years, they argued, the logic of direct control over territories and resources has resurfaced. The international system risks splitting between the U.S. technological model and the Chinese engineering model, with Europe occupying an intermediate and vulnerable position. Geopolitical entropy is also reflected in energy and technology: new dependencies, shocks, and risks of a “Stockholm syndrome” toward critical suppliers.

According to many external observers, China is registering weaker growth than official data indicate, with fragile domestic demand and an overcapacity that harms European manufacturing. The United States combines political uncertainty with a surprisingly resilient economic performance (consumption, employment, wage dynamics), while Europe suffers from structural problems: competitiveness, energy costs, slow decision-making, dependence on international trade, and a fragmented capital market.

In this context, Europe is penalized by the absence of a common industrial policy and defense, regulatory sluggishness, and limited integration of capital markets (27 supervisory authorities and weaknesses in asset management). Ultimately, it is affected by insufficient growth. Among the proposals put forward by speakers were accelerating the issuance of Eurobonds for industry, joint investments, a less fragmented energy market, and reinforcing human capital to attract talent.

The United States says it can no longer guarantee global order, and Europe must shift from being a consumer to a producer of security. The hope is for a clear assumption of responsibility by 2026, enabling Europe to take control of defense, growth, and competitiveness. Without such a leap, the risk is an Europe bound to asymmetric bilateral relations and condemned to marginality.

The panel included the following speakers: Giulio Tremonti, Chair of the Foreign and Community Affairs Committee and Chair of Aspen Institute Italia; Andrea Sironi, President of Bocconi University; Guido Bortoni, Chair of Cesi; Marco Tronchetti Provera, Executive Vice Chair of Pirelli; Emma Marcegaglia, CEO of the Marcegaglia Group; Fabio Tamburini, Editor-in-Chief of Il Sole 24 Ore; Carlo Altomonte, Associate Dean and Director of the PNRR Lab, SDA Bocconi School of Management; Daniel Rosen, Principal at Rhodium Group LLC; and Arrigo Sadun, Chair of TLSG-International Advisors. The discussion was moderated by Marta Dassù, Editor-in-Chief of Aspenia, and Stefano Caselli, Dean of SDA Bocconi School of Management.

SDA Bocconi School of Management