Can a country that almost 30 years ago survived an annual inflation rate of 6.000% be considered definitively vaccinated from all kinds of economic shocks? This is the key question that comes to light from the speech by Márcio Garcia, economist of the Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro, in the “Economic Scenarios” course for SDA Bocconi’s MBA. The country this time is Brazil, an economy that is somewhat atypical, but at the same time an interesting laboratory of structural solutions for emerging economies.
Faced with the country’s current Achilles’ heel – debt and deficit – Garcia is sure that Brazil can no longer, as in the past, act with “anesthesia without surgery”: only a radical fiscal reform, especially of the anachronistically generous pension system, can trigger the virtuous circle that the country needs to ensure stable growth. Will Brazil succeed? On paper, there are the conditions for winning the bet.
SDA Bocconi School of Management
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